Ireland has two big problems; the economy is f*cked and the Government is daft.
What was once touted as a model economy has exploded in a shower of drenching stinking cow-poo. Banking, technology, hospitality, building – you name it – are in deep, deep trouble. With such a small economy, each sector is closely reliant upon the other. If one sneezes, the other farts. Uniquely, they are all currently failing at the same time. Not good.
Senior Bank executives are quitting town faster than famine immigrants to a free all-you-can-eat buffet. The banking sector is in ruins awash in unrecoverable debt from gross mismanagement and outright fraud. Even the past Prime Minister Bertie Ahern was accused of receiving ‘campaign funds’ from his amigos, albeit in cash-laden brown envelopes. It cost him his job.
The bank executives played hard and fast with money that wasn’t theirs, for personal gain. They found themselves left standing however when the music abruptly stopped. Perpetrators of financial chicanery need have no fear however; white collar crime goes famously unpunished in the Emerald Isle. “Ah sure, it’s only money.” Great words when the money isn’t yours.
The Irish government, always a great source of national amusement, decided in a moment of giddy exuberance to guarantee all bank deposits; no upper limit. Translation: the state has bet the house, the farm and the outhouse (which it does not own) to keep business friends cash safe. They transferred the risk from business to the public. Aren’t politicians great?
Ireland is bankrupt plain and simple. Borrowing is forecast to be close to a blood-chilling 10% of GNP this year which has the European Union (EU) in Brussels wetting their pants with anxiety. The fact that Ireland Limited is still running at all, is that it is backed by its membership of the European Union. That’s the same EU that the people of Ireland, en masse, said ‘f*ck-off’ to last year when asked to support the Lisbon Treaty.
The State has taken over Anglo-Irish Bank which looks like a piece of Swiss cheese - so great are the holes of reported impropriety in the bank’s financial infrastructure. A suspected banking conspiracy has come to light following the takeover. This will cost the Irish public – at a minimum – 300 million Euros to pay for a scheme that in the U.S. would get you locked up indefinitely in a $7 million penthouse apartment in New York.
Ireland has, in a short year, gone from light-speed into full reverse into an economy not seen since the 1970s. Budget surpluses piled up over the good years were squandered by the government, on nothing. There’s no reserve, no nest-egg for a rainy day; just empty dusty coffers reminiscent of years past. No lessons were learned.
Unemployment is projected at 10 to 14-ish percent over the next 12 months; nobody knows for sure as companies wrap up and leave on a weekly basis barely stopping to turn out the lights. Healthcare is a joke. Visiting a hospital for any length of time is a practical guarantee of leaving – dead or alive - with a disease you did not come in with.
On the plus side most of Ireland’s infrastructure development over the past twenty years have been paid for by tax payers; just not Irish taxpayers. The EU, to be fair, was far more than a spectator in Ireland's economic boom.
Irish politicians have, for the most part, proven themselves as useful as tits on a bull, from the Prime Minister on down. Successive politicians crowed and basked in the glory of a booming economy pounding their chests like drunken monkeys. Their ineptitude, cronyism and political immaturity have proven once and for all that Irish politics and politicians need supervision and oversight from the EU. It can be no other way. They cannot be trusted with anything more important than picking out the colors for the State Christmas cards.
A new breed of Irish leader is needed.
New politicians need to be Euro-savvy, worldly, responsible and internationally astute. They should be modeled on the great leaders of Irish culture; Bono, Tony O’Reilly, Bob Geldoff, Michael Smurfit, O'Leary and what’s-his-face from Riverdance - Flatley. Having a balls-to-the-wall to succeed attitude has a way of permeating throughout a society. Similarly, having a herd of sheep, a farm or a pub in the country is no longer a qualification for election.
Despite everything, all is not lost.
To suggest a slide back to depressing times is to do Ireland and the Irish people a disservice. The country is small, as is the workforce. That is a unique advantage. Another is the corporate tax rate – assuming the Germans don’t take it away for the aforementioned Lisbon Treat refusal – at 12.5%. Ireland has, as the pretty investor-wooing catalogs say, ‘a young, educated workforce etc.’ Don’t be fooled, investors don’t give a bollix. The tax rate is the honey pot that attracts them.
The country should learn from America, where adversity is faced with a gritty determination to succeed; where failure is met not with despair but with the resilience to keep trying. I know I’m painting with a broad (Hollywoodesque) brush but you get the picture. Ireland, when it comes down to it, has no choice but to soldier on.
The doom and gloom will end much sooner than the prophets forecast. Ireland should use the down time to retool, to prepare, to beat the bushes for new business. All of the elements of success; the years of social investment are in place. Success goes to those who are ready for it.
Whether Ireland is ready or not will depend whether the people work together for the betterment of all (as they have for the past 10 years) or choose to wallow in the hot-tub of collective misery as only the Irish know how. The choice will determine whether the Ireland of tomorrow is the booming Hong Kong of Europe, with fast cars, wadgins of cash and nervous sheep; or not.
Either way, start by dumping the gob-shites in Kildare Street.
